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Suppose that Fred gets screened for a certain cancer, and gets a positive result...

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Suppose that Fred gets screened for a certain cancer, and gets a positive result. We know the following facts:

  • In the population at large, 1/1000 people have that cancer
  • The test's sensitivity is 90% (i.e., its false negative rate is 0.1)
  • The test's specificity is 99% (i.e., its fale positive rate is 0.01)

Use Bayes' Law to calculate the probability that Fred has this type of cancer.

Round to 3 decimal points in your answer.

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