Four analysts each describe the probability that a company merger will go through: Analyst A: " It's a toss-up ." Analyst B: " Almost impossible. " Analyst C: " There's a 15% chance. " Analyst D: " Quite likely. "

Which statement is the most precise, and why?

Question

Four analysts each describe the probability that a company merger will go through:   Analyst A: " It's a toss-up ."  Analyst B: " Almost impossible. "  Analyst C: " There's a 15% chance. "  Analyst D: " Quite likely. "
  
Which statement is the most precise, and why?

Answer

Statement D, because "quite likely" is the closest to certainty

Answer

Statement C, because it gives a specific, unambiguous numerical probability

Answer

All four statements are equally precise, since they all describe uncertainty

Answer

Statement A, because "toss-up" always means exactly 50%

Answer

Statement B, because "almost impossible" always implies a probability of 0%

Crowdly

Four analysts each describe the probability that a company merger will go throug...

Want instant access to all verified answers on learning.monash.edu?