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moodle.telt.unsw.edu.au
ARTS1362-Critical Thinking (T3 25)

ARTS1362-Critical Thinking (T3 25)

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Which of the following scenarios are clear examples of dependent outcomes?

Drawing two cards from the same deck without replacement, and getting two aces.

Drawing two cards from the same deck with replacement, and getting two aces.

Drawing two cards from the same deck without replacement, and getting an ace and a queen.

Rolling a '3' on a six-sided die and then rolling a prime number on a second, identical die.

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Consider two outcomes, each with non-zero probability, A and B. Which of the following statements regarding A and B are impossible?

A and B are mutually exclusive.

A and B are mutually exclusive and independent.

A and B are mutually exclusive and P(A|B)>0.

A and B are independent.

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Events A and B are mutually independent, with P(A)=0.3 and P(B)=0.6. What is the conditional probability P(A|B)?

P(A|B)=0.3

P(A|B)=0.5

P(A|B)=0

P(A|B)=0.6

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If two outcomes, A and B, are mutually exclusive, which of the following statements about their joint probability P(A&B) is correct?

P(A&B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∨B)

P(A&B)=P(A)+P(B)

P(A&B)=0

P(A&B)=P(A)×P(B)

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Since the latest increase in the cigarette tax, cigarette sales have plummeted.

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "cigarette taxes deter cigarette sales".

❌

Not an argument

✅

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "cigarette sales have plumetted".

❌

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "cigarette taxes have increased recently".

❌

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I have not spoken to him since he apologised.

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "I have not spoken to him".

❌

Not an argument.

✅

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "if someone apologises, you should not speak to them again".

❌

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "he apologised".

❌

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Australians have shown that we are a progressive country. So, why don’t we consider legalising recreational marijuana?

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "why don't we consider legalising recreational marijuana?"

❌

Not an argument.

❌

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "Australia is not really a progressive country".

❌

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "we should consider legalising recreational marijuana".

✅

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Consider the thinking of the royal family in Hans Christian Andersen’s story The Princess and the Pea, as reported here: “Now they knew she was a real princess, since she had felt the pea through twenty mattresses and twenty quilts! Only a real princess could be so sensitive". Does this constitute an argument? What is its conclusion?

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "they knew she was a real princess".

❌

Not an argument.

❌

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "Only a real princess could be so sensitive".

❌

It is an argument, and the conclusion is "she was a real princess"

✅

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Either your thinking is logical or it is emotional, and you are not being logical.

It is an argument, but it has no conclusion.

❌