A different analysts runs reruns the analysis from Q14 but uses a different seed (they keep everything else the same). The quantiles of the posterior draws are:

Quantile 1% 2.5% 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 97.5% 99%
Value 0.5953 0.6141 0.6330 0.6882 0.7249 0.7606 0.8097 0.8240 0.8391

Which of the following is the correct interpretation of the 95% Credible Interval?

Question

A different analysts runs reruns the analysis from Q14 but uses a different seed (they keep everything else the same). The quantiles of the posterior draws are:

Quantile    1%      2.5%    5%      25%     50%     75%     95%     97.5%   99%
Value       0.5953  0.6141  0.6330  0.6882  0.7249  0.7606  0.8097  0.8240  0.8391

Which of the following is the correct interpretation of the 95% Credible Interval?

Answer

We are 95% confident that the sample proportion lies between 0.595 and 0.839, as the interval is built around the posterior mean.

Answer

The true proportion is fixed, so it is either inside this interval or it is not, and no probability can be attached to it.

Answer

If the study were repeated many times, about 95% of intervals built this way would contain the true proportion.

Answer

Given the data and the prior, there is a 95% probability that the true proportion lies between 0.614 and 0.824.

Answer

About 95% of the individual observations in the data would fall between 0.595 and 0.839.

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A different analysts runs reruns the analysis from Q14 but uses a different seed...

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