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ATS2946 - Critical thinking: How to analyse arguments and improve your reasoning skills - S1 2025

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What is the main issue with the following inference from a sample?

A large web-based news outlet wants to know what changes to make to improve reader-satisfaction among their subscribers. It uses analytics data to identify subscribers who regularly close an article without reading the full article. The news outlet polls these subscribers. They asked them "what is the most common reason you have for closing an article before reading it in full?". Options included reasons like "The article was too boring", "I disagreed with the opinions presented in the article" and "The article was too long". The news outlet received 6,000 responses and of these, 4,180 respondents said that the most common reason they closed an article before reading it in full was that the article was too long. The news outlet concludes that roughly 70% of its subscribers find their articles too long and, in response, it implements new editorial guidelines around the length of articles.

The sample size is too small.

The sample only includes subscribers who regularly close an article without reading the full article. It doesn't include people who typically finish articles. This latter subset of subscribers might think that the articles are the right length. This is an issue with selection bias.

100%

People are unlikely to respond truthfully when asked why they closed an article before reading it in full. This is an issue with measurement bias.

People are unlikely to respond truthfully when asked why they closed an article before reading it in full. This is an issue with selection bias.

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Consider the following complex argument:

1. If government institutions are corrupt, public trust in those institutions will not be strong.

2. Government institutions are corrupt.

Therefore,

3. Public trust in government institutions is not strong.

4. If public trust in government institutions is strong, then people will go out and vote in elections.

Therefore,

C. People will not go out and vote in elections.

Which of the following is a major problem with the argument?

The premises of the main argument are independent rather than co-dependent.

The premises of the main argument do not support the main conclusion.

100%

The argument is too vague.

The premises of the sub-argument do not support the intermediate conclusion.

The argument is false.

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5(a) Determine whether the argument is valid, and give a reason why.

As experts have long argued, personal information will be hacked if companies do not employ strict cybersecurity measures. The recent hacks of personal information clearly show that companies have failed to employ such measures.

The argument is invalid, the premises are not true so the conclusion must be false.

The argument is invalid. Personal information might be hacked for some other reason (even if companies employ strict cyber security measures).

100%

The argument is valid, it has the valid form of modus tollens.

The argument is invalid. Companies might not be hacked, even if their cybersecurity is lax.

The argument is valid, the premises are all true and so is the conclusion.

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The argument is valid, the premises can’t be false and the conclusion true.

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5(b) Choose the generalised form that represents the argument.

A = Companies employ strict cybersecurity measures

B = Personal information is hacked

1. If B then not A.

2. B.

Therefore,

C: not A.

1. If A then B.

2. B.

Therefore,

C: A.

1. If not A then not B.

2. not B.