9.6%

15.0%

9.0%

8.4%

50%

Value of property, plant and equipment used to produce saleable goods

Current assets minus current liabilities

Inventory plus value of property, plant and equipment

Current assets divided by current liabilities

Trade and other receivables

Because the outcomes are always positive

Because these events only occur in financial markets

Because Black Swan events involve extreme probabilities or consequences, making EV unreliable

Because their probabilities are well-known and easily modeled

SWOT Analysis

HAZOP

Monte Carlo Simulation

Predict, Prevent, Delay, Transfer, Cancel

Accept, Avoid, Mitigate, Monitor, Transfer

Delay, Estimate, Improve, Transfer, Reject

EV is used when the exact cost of failure is unknown

EV = Outcome / Probability

EV = Probability × Outcome, and the best choice has the highest EV

To anticipate possible points of failure before the project begins

To evaluate the cost of failure after a project ends

To compare past projects with current ones

To identify success factors during execution