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Risk management (KGNB_NETA002)
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What is the main objective of involving multiple experts and aggregating their opinions during risk estimation?
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Five experts rate the probability of the Fluctuation in Material Prices risk as follows: Two experts rate it large (numerical estimate: 0.875), and three experts rate it medium (numerical estimate: 0.625). What is the average consensus Probability?
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If the consensus Probability (P) is 0.4 and the consensus Impact (I) is 200 000 HUF, what is the Expected Impact (E)?
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For which type of problems is reliance on expert estimates most necessary?
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Which cognitive bias refers to an expert overestimating the impact of a similar, though likely smaller, risk by focusing on a recent catastrophic event?
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Expert estimation is only to be used when historical statistics are unavailable for determining the probability of a risk.
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Impact estimation can be done on a qualitative scale (e.g., low, medium, high), but it must be converted to a numerical value for expected impact calculation.
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If two out of five experts rate the probability as large and three rate it as medium, the weighting of the medium rating will be lower in the final result during unweighted consensus.
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Which type of risk aggregation corresponds to the principle of considering every expert's opinion with equal weight, as presented in the curriculum?
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Which is the highest probability interval on the four-level scale?
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