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Risk management (KGNB_NETA002)
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Aggregating the expert estimates for probability and impact always yields a more accurate result using the median than the mean.
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According to the four-level probability scale used in the uploaded material, what is the numerical interval for medium probability (P)?
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A fundamental objective in reducing cognitive bias is to gather and aggregate the opinions of multiple experts whenever possible.
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On the four-level scale, medium probability is defined as the probability of occurrence falling between 0.75 and 1.0.
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Involving experts in the estimation process increases the buy-in and commitment toward the risk treatment measures.
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If the probability estimation intervals (e.g., medium) are used for aggregation, what is the appropriate step before aggregation?
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If the consensus Probability (P) is 0.85 (large) and the Impact (I) is 500 000 HUF. What is the Expected Impact (E) and where is the risk ranked?
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In establishing unweighted expert consensus, we utilize weighting factors that consider the differing experience and knowledge of the experts.
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The impact estimate for a risk is aggregated by three experts. Their estimates are 100 000 HUF, 120 000 HUF, and 140 000 HUF, respectively. What is the value of the unweighted consensus impact?
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The consensus of expert estimates extends solely to the risk's probability, but not to the impact estimate.
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